US looks to deepen Asean partnership

Annual meetings between Asean leaders and major powers from both the West and East have made Asean an important strategic partner. The upcoming Asean-related summits in Vientiane this week are no different. After the pandemic, Asean has become more prominent, though sometimes passive, in the region. By not fully taking sides in the East-West divide, Asean keeps its influence and room to handle the complex global security issues.
Dr Surin Pitsuwan, the late Asean secretary-general, told US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2009 that a strong and successful Asean meant one less problem for the US. This remains true today. Asean has never been a challenge or enemy to the US. Maintaining good relations has been the focus despite sometimes being overlooked. US policymakers often criticise Asean for not having a unified voice on matters important to the US. US participation in the Asean-US summit and East Asia Summit is difficult for the rotating Asean chairs to secure every year.
At the Vientiane summits, Secretary of State Antony Blinken will represent President Joe Biden. The Lao chair hosting the meetings understands the pressures in the US as the country heads into a presidential election. It is impractical for Mr Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris to attend in person. Mr Biden is focused on his legacy in his last months in office, while Ms Harris is busy with her presidential election campaign. Even so, Mr Blinken’s attendance shows that the US still values its relationship with Asean. Mr Blinken attended the Asean summit once in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, in 2022, and in May, he held a special summit with Asean leaders in Washington, DC. Given his busy schedule, Mr Biden could have sent a lower-level official like National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, as former President Donald Trump did in 2019 when he sent Robert O’Brien, his national security adviser, to the Asean-related summits in Thailand. Sending Mr Blinken shows the Biden administration’s continuity and commitment to its Asean policy.
Out of many reasons Asean remains important to the US, two stand out — the bloc’s strategic position and its key role in global value chains. Under Mr Biden, Asean and its members have become important in his efforts to unite allies and partners to face challenges like China’s rise and other geopolitical changes, including global economic and political shifts.
Washington has been selective in treating certain Asean members and dialogue partners favourably when they align with its strategic goals. While this can sometimes influence Asean’s decisions, it has not changed the bloc’s overall stance much. This helps explain why Asean continues to host such high-level summits. Their meetings ensure that Asean stays a neutral and safe space for major powers to engage without bias.
US-Asean relations are still growing despite further work being needed. US investment in Asean is persistent. Last year, the US was Asean’s biggest investor, with foreign direct investment (FDI) totalling $74.4 billion (2.5 trillion baht), making up 32.4% of the bloc’s total FDI. Two-way trade between the US and Asean reached $395.9 billion, making the US Asean’s second-largest trading partner.
It’s impossible to talk about US-Asean ties without comparing them to Asean’s relationship with China, especially in economic matters. Last year, China-Asean trade totalled $696.7 billion, far more than US-Asean trade. However, China’s investment in Asean, at $17.3 billion, was much lower than that of the US. The US could increase trade with Asean by expanding market access and reducing protectionist policies, strengthening its economic presence in the region.
The US is currently working with partners in the Asia-Pacific to finalise the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which doesn’t cover market access like traditional free trade agreements. However, Asean members are worried about future trade relations with the US if Mr Trump returns to the White House.
Both the US and China see Asean as a key region for engagement and investment, leading to competition for stronger ties. Asean is now the world’s second-largest FDI recipient, just behind the US. Last year, Asean attracted $229.8 billion in FDI, compared to $310.9 billion received by the US. No major power wants to weaken Asean, as doing so could hurt their own interests. China’s FDI in the region has grown recently, especially in electric vehicles.
Regardless of who wins the US presidency in November, Asean will continue to be a bridge between the two superpowers. More importantly, the bloc aims to attract investment from both the world’s No.1 and No.2 economies. Asean is improving its investment systems, including updating trade agreements to include digital trade, decarbonisation, and the circular economy under the Asean Community Vision 2045, aiming to make the region an investment hub. Asean’s economy is expected to grow and could become the world’s fourth-largest in six years. US-Asean relations will increasingly focus on trade and investment, but Asean also wants deeper US cooperation in areas like artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and the digital economy.
At a recent meeting in Vientiane between Asean economic ministers and US Trade Representative Sarah Ellerman, they discussed changes in Asean’s exports to the US. In the first quarter of this year, Asean exports to the US amounted to $68.7 billion — more than exports to China, which were $65.3 billion. This reflects the US buying more semiconductors and electrical components from Asean, which is vital to regional supply chains. These trends have long-term strategic implications for both regions’ ties with China.
Asean hopes the US will keep supporting its existing supply chains to ensure stability amid global disruptions. The region’s connectivity has stayed strong despite the Covid-19 pandemic, which has helped regional economies grow. The US now has the chance to tap into Asean’s potential, helping sustain supply chains.
As Mr Blinken attends the 12th Asean-US Summit and the 19th East Asia Summit on Friday, he must reaffirm the US commitment to engaging with Asean. However, there are worries that US domestic politics and conflicts in Europe and the Middle East might further distract Washington from Southeast Asia. The challenge for the US is to balance its global priorities while keeping its strategic partnership with Asean strong and beneficial for both sides.
Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.